Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.004
- 45.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +7.05CPOE-1.01
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.1%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.01
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/30 | 325 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 11 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 9 | 160 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 18/24 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1/4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Deontay Burnett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.56