2019 · WC

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

17·9

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

44

Model margin

+3.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapEagles
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.5%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +7.05CPOE-1.01
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.01
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. PHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–PHI
SEAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:2732Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:27637Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 9:4166Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:17951Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 1:29514Punt3–0
SEAQ2 13:50958Punt3–0
PHIQ2 8:461264Field goal3–3
SEAQ2 2:531077Touchdown10–3
PHIQ2 1:0631End of half10–3
PHIQ3 15:00752Field goal10–6
SEAQ3 10:36581Touchdown17–6
PHIQ3 8:461055Field goal17–9
SEAQ3 2:49932Punt17–9
PHIQ4 12:131069Turnover on downs17–9
SEAQ4 6:2137Punt17–9
PHIQ4 4:56819Turnover on downs17–9
SEAQ4 1:56336End of half17–9

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3032510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson9455.00
Travis Homer11121.10
Marshawn Lynch671.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf791601
Tyler Lockett48620
David Moore24570
Marshawn Lynch23250
Jacob Hollister24160
Travis Homer1150

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown18/2417400
Carson Wentz1/4300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders14694.90
Boston Scott6254.20
Josh McCown5234.60
Greg Ward133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert78730
Zach Ertz24440
Greg Ward34240
Boston Scott33230
Miles Sanders3580
Deontay Burnett1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.56