Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.032
- 46.3%Success rate44.6%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.86CPOE+1.54
- 47.5%Third-down rate36.3%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 2.30Points / drive2.00
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/31 | 143 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 82 | 6.3 | 2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/33 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.39