2023 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

17·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Drew Lock

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

46

Model margin

-0.4est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.032
  • 46.3%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +3.86CPOE+1.54
  • 47.5%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.00
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
PHIQ1 15:001575Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 6:31314Punt7–0
PHIQ1 4:2935Punt7–0
SEAQ1 3:29621Punt7–0
PHIQ2 14:461568Field goal10–0
SEAQ2 6:201247Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 1:42415Punt10–3
SEAQ2 1:0838Punt10–3
PHIQ2 0:2736Punt10–3
SEAQ3 15:00975Touchdown10–10
PHIQ3 10:051270Touchdown17–10
SEAQ3 4:433-3Punt17–10
PHIQ3 3:0937Punt17–10
SEAQ3 1:261140Field goal17–13
PHIQ4 10:00430Turnover17–13
SEAQ4 8:0835Punt17–13
PHIQ4 6:35725Punt17–13
SEAQ4 1:521092Touchdown17–20
PHIQ4 0:28320Turnover17–20
SEAQ4 0:0600End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts17/3114302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts13826.32
D'Andre Swift18744.10
Kenny Gainwell6213.50
Dallas Goedert111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown510560
DeVonta Smith55500
Dallas Goedert49300
Julio Jones1160
D'Andre Swift2310
Quez Watkins0100
Kenny Gainwell0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock22/3320810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III19864.51
Zach Charbonnet4164.00
Drew Lock1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf56780
Jaxon Smith-Njigba44481
Kenneth Walker III33260
Tyler Lockett39210
Noah Fant35160
Will Dissly2290
Colby Parkinson1160
Jake Bobo1140
Zach Charbonnet0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.39