Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play-0.069
- 47.0%Success rate38.9%
- +0.077EPA / dropback-0.035
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.118
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.41CPOE+0.03
- 42.0%Third-down rate33.6%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.91Points / drive1.31
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 17/29 | 208 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 13/16 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 22 | 148 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81