2011 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Vince Young

14·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Tarvaris Jackson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.053EPA / play-0.069
  • 47.0%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback-0.035
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.118
  • 12.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.41CPOE+0.03
  • 42.0%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.31
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2008 · W9PHI @ SEA26–7PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:3810Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 12:26565Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:1934Punt0–7
SEAQ1 7:313-3Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:49429Punt0–7
SEAQ1 2:44783Touchdown0–14
PHIQ2 14:50571Touchdown7–14
SEAQ2 11:43640Punt7–14
PHIQ2 7:2537Punt7–14
SEAQ2 6:2435Punt7–14
PHIQ2 4:58418Punt7–14
SEAQ2 2:49649Field goal7–17
PHIQ2 0:16313End of half7–17
PHIQ3 15:00738Turnover7–17
SEAQ3 11:08630Touchdown7–24
PHIQ3 8:041780Touchdown14–24
SEAQ4 12:51827Punt14–24
PHIQ4 7:58767Opp touchdown14–31
PHIQ4 4:2423Turnover14–31
SEAQ4 4:01846End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young17/2920814

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy17844.91
Vince Young5326.40
Ronnie Brown2115.50
DeSean Jackson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper510940
LeSean McCoy45491
DeSean Jackson45340
Brent Celek34210
Jason Avant12100
Chad Hall0100
Clay Harbor0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson13/1619010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch221486.72
Leon Washington691.50
Golden Tate188.00
Justin Forsett252.50
Tarvaris Jackson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller22530
Golden Tate44471
Ben Obomanu22280
Doug Baldwin12210
Mike Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.81