2001 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Neil O'Donnell

6·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -2

Total

36

Model margin

+4.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.011EPA / play-0.282
  • 39.7%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.233
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.375
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
  • 1.49Points / drive0.28
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:00746Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 10:503-9Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:24841Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 5:21963Field goal3–3
TENQ1 0:0139Punt3–3
JAXQ2 13:20318Turnover3–3
TENQ2 12:06634Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 8:33978Opp touchdown12–4
TENQ2 4:56723Punt12–4
JAXQ2 1:5039Punt12–4
TENQ2 1:02529Punt12–4
JAXQ2 0:0510End of half12–4
JAXQ3 15:00952Missed field goal12–4
TENQ3 8:2439Punt12–4
JAXQ3 6:54956Field goal12–7
TENQ3 2:063-5Punt12–7
JAXQ3 0:0000Punt12–7
JAXQ4 15:0035Punt12–7
TENQ4 13:2838Punt12–7
JAXQ4 11:02349Turnover12–7
TENQ4 9:24748Turnover on downs12–7
JAXQ4 5:3234Punt12–7
TENQ4 3:48825Turnover on downs12–7
JAXQ4 2:0335Punt12–7
TENQ4 1:394-3Turnover on downs12–7
JAXQ4 1:012-1End of half12–7

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell17/2723500
Neil O'Donnell21/3621500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stacey Mack18804.41
Eddie George20794.00
Fred Taylor6203.30
Mark Brunell6193.20
Mike Green284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith711870
Damon Jones22580
Erron Kinney46530
Keenan McCardell46490
Kevin Dyson49380
Eddie Berlin23280
Frank Wycheck36190
Chris Coleman12190
Justin McCareins11180
Eddie George33170
Sean Dawkins12160
Stacey Mack23140
Fred Taylor11110
Mike Green11100
Chris Sanders1490
Derrick Mason1140
Kyle Brady0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.04