Closing spread
JAX -2
Total
36
Model margin
+4.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play-0.282
- 39.7%Success rate40.8%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.375
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- 42.1%Third-down rate34.6%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.49Points / drive0.28
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 17/27 | 235 | 0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 21/36 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Eddie Berlin | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Coleman | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.04