2024 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

10·6

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

40

Model margin

+3.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.104
  • 41.5%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.175
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.88CPOE+0.11
  • 36.6%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.35
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:001051Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 8:32930Turnover0–3
TENQ1 3:34311Punt0–3
JAXQ1 1:40637Punt0–3
TENQ2 12:551790Turnover on downs0–3
JAXQ2 4:411462Turnover0–3
TENQ2 0:011-13End of half0–3
JAXQ3 15:0034Punt0–3
TENQ3 13:50411Punt0–3
JAXQ3 12:1839Punt0–3
TENQ3 10:071045Field goal0–6
JAXQ3 4:301365Field goal3–6
TENQ4 12:09416Punt3–6
JAXQ4 10:07781Touchdown10–6
TENQ4 6:461161Turnover on downs10–6
JAXQ4 1:1135Punt10–6
TENQ4 0:4940Turnover on downs10–6
JAXQ4 0:2800End of half10–6

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones23/3122002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby18553.11
Travis Etienne4205.00
Mac Jones331.00
Devin Duvernay1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.812860
Travis Etienne44500
Evan Engram46330
Brenton Strange11210
Parker Washington22150
Devin Duvernay3380
Tank Bigsby1270

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis19/3216800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard211024.90
Tyjae Spears6213.50
Will Levis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley712590
Josh Whyle22310
Tony Pollard22220
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine12190
Bryce Oliver11160
Chig Okonkwo3480
Tyler Boyd1470
Nick Vannett1240
Tyjae Spears1220
David Martin-Robinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40