Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.104
- 41.5%Success rate40.4%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.175
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.88CPOE+0.11
- 36.6%Third-down rate38.0%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.74Points / drive1.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/31 | 220 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 8 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/32 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40