2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

20·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.023
  • 43.1%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +1.62CPOE+0.48
  • 38.5%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.57
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
JAXQ1 15:001049Field goal3–0
TENQ1 9:45775Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 5:57413Punt3–7
TENQ1 3:54518Punt3–7
JAXQ1 1:54793Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 12:24875Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 8:2747Turnover10–14
TENQ2 6:33731Touchdown10–21
JAXQ2 3:03538Turnover10–21
TENQ2 1:0666Turnover on downs10–21
JAXQ2 0:22326Field goal13–21
TENQ3 15:00475Touchdown13–28
JAXQ3 12:451333Turnover on downs13–28
TENQ3 7:0938Punt13–28
JAXQ3 5:081063Touchdown20–28
TENQ4 14:55518Turnover20–28
JAXQ4 12:091132Turnover on downs20–28
TENQ4 7:13824Punt20–28
JAXQ4 2:1848Turnover on downs20–28
TENQ4 1:4700End of half20–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence29/4328022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne16573.60
Tank Bigsby3165.30
Trevor Lawrence3103.30
D'Ernest Johnson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley6101061
Evan Engram1013791
Zay Jones69470
Travis Etienne56300
Parker Washington11110
Tim Jones1270

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2616821
DeAndre Hopkins0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry191538.11
Tyjae Spears3258.31
Ryan Tannehill3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins710461
Tyjae Spears33411
Chig Okonkwo23360
Chris Moore34300
Kyle Philips23150
Ryan Tannehill0100
Kevin Rader0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.47