Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.023
- 43.1%Success rate40.9%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.62CPOE+0.48
- 38.5%Third-down rate34.1%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.84Points / drive1.57
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 29/43 | 280 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 10 | 106 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 10 | 13 | 79 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/26 | 168 | 2 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 153 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 10 | 46 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Rader | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.47