Closing spread
JAX -12.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+9.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.039
- 37.9%Success rate44.5%
- -0.165EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -3.50CPOE-1.56
- 32.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.36Points / drive2.30
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Allen | 17/30 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
| Cam Ward | 3/3 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 10 | 50 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 22/30 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 5 | 9 | 87 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | 6 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.4%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.09