2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

7·41

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

JAX -12.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+9.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.148EPA / play+0.039
  • 37.9%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.165EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -3.50CPOE-1.56
  • 32.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 1.36Points / drive2.30
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:004-8Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:31563Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 10:09862Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 6:02515Punt7–7
JAXQ1 3:063-2Punt7–7
TENQ1 1:3636Punt7–7
JAXQ2 14:52650Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 11:47730Opp touchdown7–21
TENQ2 8:0732Punt7–21
JAXQ2 7:02986Touchdown7–28
TENQ2 1:56614Turnover on downs7–31
JAXQ2 0:0300Field goal7–31
TENQ3 15:003-7Punt7–31
JAXQ3 13:23936Punt7–31
TENQ3 9:2139Punt7–31
JAXQ3 6:54946Field goal7–34
TENQ3 1:03716Turnover on downs7–34
JAXQ4 13:231051Touchdown7–41
TENQ4 7:281246Missed field goal7–41
JAXQ4 1:5500End of half7–41

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Allen17/307201
Cam Ward3/35200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard14483.40
Tyjae Spears3186.00
Cam Ward2115.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elic Ayomanor310500
Chimere Dike34270
Tony Pollard33170
David Martin-Robinson13140
Tyjae Spears7790
James Proche1150
Chig Okonkwo2520

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence22/3025530
Nick Mullens2/21600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne14322.30
Bhayshul Tuten5234.61
Trevor Lawrence2115.50
Nick Mullens3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington59871
Brenton Strange66521
Brian Thomas Jr.35490
Jakobi Meyers56440
Johnny Mundt11160
Dyami Brown1180
Travis Etienne1160
Quintin Morris1151
Tim Patrick1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.56.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.4%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.09