2023 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

14·34

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

JAX -6.5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.032
  • 40.9%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +0.48CPOE+1.62
  • 34.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:22619Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:19449Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 7:41948Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 2:581330Punt0–7
JAXQ2 8:591150Field goal0–10
TENQ2 2:4339Punt0–10
JAXQ2 1:481060Field goal0–13
TENQ2 0:1400End of half0–13
JAXQ3 15:00973Touchdown0–20
TENQ3 9:12314Punt0–20
JAXQ3 6:51680Touchdown0–27
TENQ3 3:22665Touchdown7–27
JAXQ4 15:0035Punt7–27
JAXQ4 12:54936Touchdown7–34
TENQ4 7:28675Touchdown14–34
JAXQ4 4:28818Turnover on downs14–34
TENQ4 0:2700End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis13/1715820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Moore13838.00
Derrick Henry10383.80
Tyjae Spears4143.50
Will Levis420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins45591
Chris Moore11490
Tyjae Spears22120
Kyle Philips11100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1170
Josh Whyle1270
Derrick Henry1260
Chig Okonkwo1260

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/3226220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne14523.70
Tank Bigsby9212.30
D'Ernest Johnson7202.90
Calvin Ridley11818.00
Trevor Lawrence5173.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley791032
Christian Kirk36480
D'Ernest Johnson11340
Evan Engram46290
Luke Farrell22210
Zay Jones44200
Travis Etienne3370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.36