Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.032
- 40.9%Success rate43.1%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- +0.48CPOE+1.62
- 34.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.57Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 13/17 | 158 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 1 | 38 | 38.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/32 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 9 | 103 | 2 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.36