2025 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

25·3

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -6

Total

42.5

Model margin

-5.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.148
  • 44.5%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.165
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.56CPOE-3.50
  • 40.9%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.36
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
JAXQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:041070Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 5:06784Touchdown7–3
TENQ1 1:0400Touchdown7–3
JAXQ1 0:58335Touchdown15–3
TENQ2 14:543-5Punt15–3
JAXQ2 12:2835Punt15–3
TENQ2 10:5637Punt15–3
JAXQ2 9:1243Punt15–3
TENQ2 7:0737Punt15–3
JAXQ2 5:1940Punt15–3
TENQ2 2:32726Turnover on downs15–3
JAXQ2 0:20437Field goal18–3
TENQ3 15:0039Punt18–3
JAXQ3 13:211556Touchdown25–3
TENQ3 6:45717Punt25–3
JAXQ3 3:07726Punt25–3
TENQ4 14:0644Turnover on downs25–3
JAXQ4 13:1535Punt25–3
TENQ4 11:291112Turnover on downs25–3
JAXQ4 6:4832Punt25–3
TENQ4 5:20841Turnover25–3
JAXQ4 1:4900End of half25–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence16/2722920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne12282.30
Trevor Lawrence3258.30
Bhayshul Tuten8172.11
Jakobi Meyers133.00
Nick Mullens3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jakobi Meyers66901
Brenton Strange34451
Brian Thomas Jr.23280
Parker Washington13260
Quintin Morris12140
Travis Etienne11130
Tim Patrick11110
Bhayshul Tuten1120
Austin Trammell0400

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward24/3814100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard10606.00
Cam Ward177.00
Chimere Dike111.00
Tyjae Spears2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo45290
Tyjae Spears66250
Gunnar Helm67230
Van Jefferson34200
Xavier Restrepo11150
James Proche11130
Chimere Dike1480
Elic Ayomanor1550
Tony Pollard1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.2%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.68