Closing spread
JAX -6
Total
42.5
Model margin
-5.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.148
- 44.5%Success rate37.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.56CPOE-3.50
- 40.9%Third-down rate32.0%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.30Points / drive1.36
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/27 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 24/38 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 6 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Xavier Restrepo | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.2%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.68