2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Joshua Dobbs

16·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

JAX -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.045
  • 41.2%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.100
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.94CPOE+1.07
  • 37.1%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.07
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:2949Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:221766Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 1:231155Turnover3–0
TENQ2 9:24769Touchdown10–0
JAXQ2 5:32650Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 2:361055Field goal13–7
JAXQ3 15:001169Field goal13–10
TENQ3 10:091034Field goal16–10
JAXQ3 6:02533Punt16–10
TENQ3 4:02614Turnover16–10
JAXQ3 0:4137Field goal16–13
TENQ4 14:493-2Punt16–13
JAXQ4 12:2833Punt16–13
TENQ4 11:3439Punt16–13
JAXQ4 9:4530Punt16–13
TENQ4 8:06925Opp touchdown16–20
TENQ4 2:51736Turnover on downs16–20
JAXQ4 1:3000End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs20/2917911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry301093.60
Joshua Dobbs5326.40
Racey McMath144.00
Hassan Haskins231.50
Jonathan Ward1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo34421
Robert Woods45400
Austin Hooper44380
Derrick Henry11190
Treylon Burks47190
Hassan Haskins22130
Geoff Swaim1150
Jonathan Ward1230
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/3221210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne7172.40
JaMycal Hasty351.70
Trevor Lawrence4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk68991
Marvin Jones26290
Evan Engram44270
Zay Jones46210
Travis Etienne22170
Luke Farrell11110
Jamal Agnew1180
JaMycal Hasty0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.67
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+6.28