Closing spread
JAX -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.045
- 41.2%Success rate46.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.100
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.94CPOE+1.07
- 37.1%Third-down rate42.0%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.46Points / drive2.07
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 20/29 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 30 | 109 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/32 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.67
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.28