Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
38
Model margin
+0.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.104EPA / play-0.023
- 40.4%Success rate41.5%
- -0.056EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.11CPOE-0.88
- 38.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.74
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 19/31 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/22 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 7 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.12
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01