2024 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

13·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

38

Model margin

+0.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.104EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.4%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.056EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.175EPA / rush-0.067
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.11CPOE-0.88
  • 38.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.74
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00838Field goal0–3
TENQ1 10:46522Punt0–3
JAXQ1 7:421054Punt0–3
TENQ1 2:071045Turnover0–3
JAXQ2 11:44543Touchdown0–10
TENQ2 8:59423Punt0–10
JAXQ2 7:181154Field goal0–13
TENQ2 2:021045Field goal3–13
TENQ3 15:001489Touchdown10–13
JAXQ3 6:51310Punt10–13
TENQ3 5:1465Punt10–13
JAXQ3 1:161789Touchdown10–20
TENQ4 7:051165Field goal13–20
JAXQ4 2:0238Punt13–20
TENQ4 1:29943Turnover on downs13–20
JAXQ4 0:0900End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph19/3119311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyjae Spears20954.80
Mason Rudolph5234.60
Julius Chestnut3175.70
Chig Okonkwo11717.00
Calvin Ridley177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley56840
Chig Okonkwo57420
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine36370
Tyler Boyd24140
Nick Vannett1181
Tyjae Spears3480
Julius Chestnut0100
Josh Whyle0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones15/2217420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne15493.30
Tank Bigsby11333.00
Mac Jones6223.70
Brian Thomas Jr.11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.710911
Parker Washington33311
Travis Etienne12260
D'Ernest Johnson22110
Tim Jones11110
Devin Duvernay1140
Tank Bigsby0100
Brenton Strange0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.12
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01