Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
42
Model margin
-1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.066
- 46.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.07CPOE-0.94
- 42.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 2.07Points / drive1.46
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 30/42 | 368 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 17 | 32 | 1.9 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 11 | 15 | 162 | 2 |
| Zay Jones | 8 | 12 | 77 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/38 | 254 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 121 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 6 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Racey McMath | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.44