2022 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

36·22

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

42

Model margin

-1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.066
  • 46.6%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.07CPOE-0.94
  • 42.0%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.46
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2021 · W14JAX @ TEN0–20TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:001266Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 9:0935Punt0–7
TENQ1 8:133-5Turnover0–7
JAXQ1 6:46320Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 6:01675Touchdown7–14
JAXQ1 3:03512Punt7–14
TENQ1 0:22533Turnover7–14
JAXQ2 12:56855Field goal10–14
TENQ2 8:5236Punt10–14
JAXQ2 7:16946Field goal13–14
TENQ2 3:10339Turnover13–14
JAXQ2 1:49678Touchdown20–14
TENQ2 0:11216End of half20–14
JAXQ3 15:001379Touchdown27–14
TENQ3 7:534-8Punt27–14
JAXQ3 5:16643Touchdown33–14
TENQ3 3:0730Punt33–14
JAXQ3 1:33534Turnover on downs33–14
TENQ4 14:0910Turnover33–14
JAXQ4 14:04516Field goal36–14
TENQ4 10:521179Touchdown36–22
JAXQ4 7:15428Punt36–22
TENQ4 5:241363Turnover on downs36–22
JAXQ4 1:59313End of half36–22

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence30/4236830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne17321.90
JaMycal Hasty4133.30
Jamal Agnew188.00
Trevor Lawrence372.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram11151622
Zay Jones812771
Christian Kirk57450
Jamal Agnew33360
Marvin Jones11220
Chris Manhertz11210
Dan Arnold1350

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill25/3825421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry171217.11
Ryan Tannehill2168.00
Chig Okonkwo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper55680
Robert Woods57490
Chig Okonkwo66451
Derrick Henry35340
Chris Conley11270
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine38231
Julius Chestnut2280
Racey McMath0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.44