2001 · Week 2
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.054
- 38.9%Success rate42.5%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- 34.9%Third-down rate35.7%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.18Points / drive1.76
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 15/24 | 102 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/31 | 236 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 1 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 6 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.20
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.53