2025 · Week 2

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

18·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPackers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.122
  • 46.4%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.274
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.67CPOE+5.62
  • 37.2%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.39
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–GB
GBQ1 15:001149Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 10:2536Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:08796Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 4:3345Punt0–7
GBQ1 2:0036Punt0–7
WASQ2 14:49612Punt0–7
GBQ2 12:241092Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 7:34837Field goal3–14
GBQ2 4:2749Punt3–14
WASQ2 2:02522Missed field goal3–14
GBQ2 0:14222Missed field goal3–14
WASQ3 15:00610Missed field goal3–14
GBQ3 11:541069Field goal3–17
WASQ3 6:3737Punt3–17
GBQ3 5:0432Punt3–17
WASQ3 3:311245Touchdown10–17
GBQ4 13:451060Touchdown10–24
WASQ4 8:5746Turnover on downs10–24
GBQ4 7:4232Field goal10–27
WASQ4 6:421167Touchdown18–27
GBQ4 2:533-1Punt18–27
WASQ4 1:47513Turnover on downs18–27
GBQ4 0:5200End of half18–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels24/4220020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler8172.10
Jayden Daniels7172.40
Jacory Croskey-Merritt4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz68641
Terry McLaurin59480
Deebo Samuel Sr.78441
Luke McCaffrey11190
Noah Brown1490
Austin Ekeler2470
Ben Sinnott1170
Jaylin Lane1420
Jacory Croskey-Merritt0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love19/3129220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs23843.71
Savion Williams22412.00
Matthew Golden2157.50
Jordan Love3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tucker Kraft671241
Dontayvion Wicks46440
Malik Heath11370
Luke Musgrave22320
Romeo Doubs35281
Chris Brooks34270
Matthew Golden0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.00