2025 · Week 2
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.122
- 46.4%Success rate48.0%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.274
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.67CPOE+5.62
- 37.2%Third-down rate48.8%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.03Points / drive2.39
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/42 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/31 | 292 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 6 | 7 | 124 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.00