2018 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.073
- 45.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.39CPOE-3.01
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.05Points / drive1.44
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/44 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 4 | 76 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 11 | 22 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mason Crosby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/20 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 120 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 70 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.01