2018 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.073
  • 45.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.096
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.39CPOE-3.01
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.05Points / drive1.44
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–WAS
WASQ1 15:00475Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 12:54511Punt0–7
WASQ1 10:4331Punt0–7
GBQ1 9:4937Punt0–7
WASQ1 8:181357Touchdown0–14
GBQ1 2:141041Field goal3–14
WASQ2 12:52318Turnover3–14
GBQ2 11:20612Punt3–14
WASQ2 7:40898Touchdown3–21
GBQ2 4:26476Touchdown10–21
WASQ2 2:15574Touchdown10–28
GBQ2 0:21432End of half10–28
GBQ3 15:001575Touchdown17–28
WASQ3 7:5835Punt17–28
GBQ3 5:33530Turnover on downs17–28
WASQ3 2:32612Punt17–28
GBQ4 14:35518Punt17–28
WASQ4 12:28410Punt17–28
GBQ4 10:11636Punt17–28
WASQ4 7:2634Punt17–28
GBQ4 5:5524Turnover17–28
WASQ4 5:23734Field goal17–31
GBQ4 1:585-2Turnover on downs17–31
WASQ4 0:4600End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/4426520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones6427.00
Jamaal Williams5295.80
Ty Montgomery4164.00
Aaron Rodgers2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Geronimo Allison24761
Davante Adams79521
Ty Montgomery67490
Jimmy Graham57450
Randall Cobb411220
Jamaal Williams23160
Aaron Jones1150
Mason Crosby0100
Lance Kendricks0100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith12/2022021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson191206.32
Alex Smith7202.90
Chris Thompson6172.80
Jamison Crowder166.00
Kapri Bibbs231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis22700
Jordan Reed47650
Paul Richardson12461
Jamison Crowder44391
Chris Thompson1200
Josh Doctson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.01