2022 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
GB -4
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play-0.066
- 46.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.035EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.52CPOE-1.41
- 39.3%Third-down rate34.9%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.91Points / drive1.48
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/35 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 10 | 53 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Amari Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 20/33 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Armani Rogers | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.40
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.59