2022 · Week 7

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.017EPA / play-0.066
  • 46.2%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.52CPOE-1.41
  • 39.3%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.48
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–WAS
GBQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:0633Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:00742Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 6:3837Punt7–0
WASQ1 4:55514Field goal7–3
GBQ1 2:04414Punt7–3
WASQ1 0:24523Opp touchdown14–3
WASQ2 13:291283Touchdown14–10
GBQ2 7:214-6Punt14–10
WASQ2 5:5069Missed field goal14–10
GBQ2 2:4864Punt14–10
WASQ2 1:2330Punt14–10
GBQ2 0:4515End of half14–10
WASQ3 15:00669Touchdown14–17
GBQ3 11:49522Punt14–17
WASQ3 8:561572Field goal14–20
GBQ3 0:08843Turnover on downs14–20
WASQ4 11:22846Field goal14–23
GBQ4 6:401148Touchdown21–23
WASQ4 3:26838Punt21–23
GBQ4 0:23243End of half21–23

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3519420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones8232.90
AJ Dillon4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard67550
Aaron Jones910532
Sammy Watkins24360
Robert Tonyan34320
Amari Rodgers23140
Samori Toure1140
Romeo Doubs0400

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke20/3320121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson20733.60
Antonio Gibson10595.90
Curtis Samuel5265.20
Taylor Heinicke242.00
J.D. McKissic144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin58731
Curtis Samuel58530
Armani Rogers33280
Antonio Gibson34181
Brian Robinson22130
Cam Sims12120
Dax Milne1140
J.D. McKissic0200
Cole Turner0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.40
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.59