2021 · Week 7
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
48
Model margin
+5.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.136
- 44.8%Success rate48.9%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.003
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.08CPOE+4.71
- 38.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.78Points / drive2.45
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 25/37 | 268 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 10 | 95 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 12 | 122 | 1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 274 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kylin Hill | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylin Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.24