2021 · Week 7

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

10·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -8.5

Total

48

Model margin

+5.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPackers
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.136
  • 44.8%Success rate48.9%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.003
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.08CPOE+4.71
  • 38.3%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.45
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–GB
GBQ1 15:001375Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 7:11883Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 2:263-11Punt7–7
WASQ1 1:17920Missed field goal7–7
GBQ2 11:22952Missed field goal7–7
WASQ2 5:17545Turnover on downs7–7
GBQ2 2:58972Touchdown7–14
WASQ2 0:1500End of half7–14
WASQ3 15:0024Turnover7–14
GBQ3 14:07327Touchdown7–21
WASQ3 12:301286Turnover on downs7–21
GBQ3 5:5235Punt7–21
WASQ3 4:04752Turnover on downs7–21
GBQ3 1:051167Field goal7–24
WASQ4 11:221365Turnover7–24
GBQ4 6:29218Turnover7–24
WASQ4 5:39511Field goal10–24
GBQ4 2:253-1Punt10–24
WASQ4 2:03965End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke25/3726811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taylor Heinicke10959.50
Antonio Gibson14513.60
DeAndre Carter12727.00
J.D. McKissic4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin7121221
Ricky Seals-Jones67510
Adam Humphries34360
J.D. McKissic46340
Dax Milne24160
Antonio Gibson2250
DeAndre Carter1140

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/3527430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones6193.20
Aaron Rodgers2178.50
Equanimeous St. Brown11313.00
AJ Dillon362.00
Kylin Hill320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams67761
Robert Tonyan45631
Allen Lazard56601
Marcedes Lewis33310
Randall Cobb34220
Aaron Jones55200
AJ Dillon1220
Equanimeous St. Brown0100
Kylin Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.24