2015 · WC
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
WAS -2
Total
47
Model margin
+3.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play+0.022
- 42.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.075EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.77CPOE+5.62
- 33.6%Third-down rate43.9%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.72Points / drive1.81
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/36 | 210 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| James Starks | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 7 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/46 | 329 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 17 | 120 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 8 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashad Ross | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.85