2015 · WC

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

35·18

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

WAS -2

Total

47

Model margin

+3.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.002EPA / play+0.022
  • 42.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -0.77CPOE+5.62
  • 33.6%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.81
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–WAS
GBQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:1335Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:473-4Safety0–2
WASQ1 10:27953Field goal0–5
GBQ1 4:5132Punt0–5
WASQ1 3:573-5Punt0–5
GBQ1 2:1731Punt0–5
WASQ1 1:24764Touchdown0–11
GBQ2 13:021075Touchdown7–11
WASQ2 9:04634Turnover7–11
GBQ2 6:05825Field goal10–11
WASQ2 2:5438Punt10–11
GBQ2 2:22960Touchdown17–11
WASQ2 0:2800End of half17–11
WASQ3 15:00973Touchdown17–18
GBQ3 9:411180Touchdown24–18
WASQ3 4:1232Punt24–18
GBQ3 3:021071Touchdown32–18
WASQ4 12:23734Punt32–18
GBQ4 8:5657Punt32–18
WASQ4 5:5568Turnover on downs32–18
GBQ4 4:5836Field goal35–18
WASQ4 4:39760Turnover on downs35–18
GBQ4 2:46212Turnover35–18
WASQ4 1:51619Turnover on downs35–18
GBQ4 0:1300End of half35–18

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3621020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy12635.31
James Starks12534.41
Randall Cobb5244.80
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones711810
Davante Adams44481
Randall Cobb38381
Jared Abbrederis24140
James Starks22120
Richard Rodgers24110

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins29/4632910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris11504.50
Chris Thompson12525.00
Pierre Thomas471.80
Kirk Cousins221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed9171201
Chris Thompson88890
Pierre Garcon58700
DeSean Jackson25170
Alex Smith11160
Jamison Crowder34150
Rashad Ross1120
Ryan Grant0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.85