2016 · Week 11
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 23mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.118
- 45.9%Success rate48.2%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.9%Explosive rate10.6%
- +2.71CPOE+4.99
- 47.4%Third-down rate44.9%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 2.39Points / drive2.32
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/41 | 351 | 3 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 6 | 11 | 105 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/30 | 375 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 24 | 137 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 3 | 102 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.38