2016 · Week 11

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·42

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

WAS -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.118
  • 45.9%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.9%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +2.71CPOE+4.99
  • 47.4%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.32
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–WAS
GBQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:593-3Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:5032Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:29744Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:0037Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:48855Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 2:561985Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 9:2730Punt7–7
GBQ2 8:59943Field goal10–7
WASQ2 3:37875Touchdown10–13
GBQ2 0:391-10End of half10–13
WASQ3 15:00939Field goal10–16
GBQ3 9:23880Missed field goal10–16
WASQ3 5:34779Touchdown10–22
GBQ3 2:00675Touchdown17–22
WASQ4 14:51275Touchdown17–29
GBQ4 14:25882Touchdown24–29
WASQ4 10:041281Touchdown24–35
GBQ4 3:54451Turnover24–35
WASQ4 2:59372Touchdown24–42
GBQ4 2:2649Turnover24–42
WASQ4 1:2100End of half24–42

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4135130
Brett Hundley1/3901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers33311.00
James Starks9252.80
Ty Montgomery4174.30
Brett Hundley100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook6111051
Randall Cobb35840
James Starks56461
Davante Adams36420
Jordy Nelson35281
Richard Rodgers44280
Ty Montgomery34270
Jeff Janis0100
Geronimo Allison0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3037530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley241375.73
Chris Thompson2105.00
Kirk Cousins441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon671161
Jamison Crowder331021
Jordan Reed56790
DeSean Jackson46511
Maurice Harris11140
Chris Thompson1390
Ryan Grant1140
Vernon Davis0100
Rob Kelley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.38