2019 · Week 14
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
GB -13
Total
42.5
Model margin
+8.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.059
- 38.8%Success rate43.9%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.94CPOE+0.96
- 29.0%Third-down rate37.9%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 1.49Points / drive2.12
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 16/27 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Derrius Guice | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/28 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 134 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jace Sternberger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.95