2019 · Week 14

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

15·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -13

Total

42.5

Model margin

+8.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPackers
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.059
  • 38.8%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.94CPOE+0.96
  • 29.0%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.12
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–GB
WASQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:50755Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:0635Punt0–7
GBQ1 7:283-1Punt0–7
WASQ1 5:1839Punt0–7
GBQ1 3:40557Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 0:34723Punt0–14
GBQ2 11:22443Punt0–14
WASQ2 9:301195Touchdown6–14
GBQ2 3:44940Turnover6–14
WASQ2 0:51514Turnover6–14
GBQ2 0:0100End of half6–14
GBQ3 15:00960Field goal6–17
WASQ3 10:084-6Punt6–17
GBQ3 7:5835Punt6–17
WASQ3 6:451237Field goal9–17
GBQ3 0:11411Punt9–17
WASQ4 13:19620Punt9–17
GBQ4 9:581374Field goal9–20
WASQ4 2:34775Touchdown15–20
GBQ4 1:1700End of half15–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins16/2717011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20763.81
Derrius Guice5428.40
Wendell Smallwood242.00
Dwayne Haskins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin47571
Chris Thompson78430
Steven Sims47400
Kelvin Harmon14300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2819510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones161348.41
Jamaal Williams7243.40
Aaron Rodgers5163.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Jones67580
Jimmy Graham35490
Davante Adams46410
Allen Lazard23190
Robert Tonyan11121
Geronimo Allison11110
Marcedes Lewis1150
Danny Vitale0100
Jamaal Williams0100
Jace Sternberger0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +136.9%3.1%5.0%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.1%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.95