2013 · Week 2

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

20·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -9

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPackers
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.072
  • 42.2%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.065EPA / rush+0.003
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -3.92CPOE+2.82
  • 40.7%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.19
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2010 · W5GB @ WAS13–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–GB
GBQ1 15:001475Field goal0–3
WASQ1 8:02420Punt0–3
GBQ1 6:0638Punt0–3
WASQ1 4:0333Punt0–3
GBQ1 3:08442Touchdown0–10
WASQ1 2:27447Punt0–10
GBQ2 14:53985Touchdown0–17
WASQ2 11:40422Punt0–17
GBQ2 10:04690Touchdown0–24
WASQ2 7:07864Turnover0–24
GBQ2 2:56973Turnover0–24
WASQ2 0:0900End of half0–24
WASQ3 15:0038Punt0–24
GBQ3 13:243-12Punt0–24
WASQ3 12:25637Missed field goal0–24
GBQ3 10:09460Touchdown0–31
WASQ3 8:16883Touchdown7–31
GBQ3 4:15480Touchdown7–38
WASQ3 2:411394Touchdown14–38
GBQ4 11:0235Punt14–38
WASQ4 9:14645Touchdown20–38
GBQ4 7:361077End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III26/4032031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris131078.20
Robert Griffin III410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon8121431
Santana Moss35411
Josh Morgan26390
Leonard Hankerson33350
Jordan Reed34181
Logan Paulsen23130
Aldrick Robinson12130
Alfred Morris22130
Fred Davis1230
Roy Helu1120

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers34/4248040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks201326.61
Eddie Lacy11010.00
Aaron Rodgers3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones11121780
Randall Cobb9101281
Jordy Nelson34662
Jermichael Finley67651
James Starks45360
Andrew Quarless1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.88