2013 · Week 2
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
GB -9
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.072
- 42.2%Success rate45.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.065EPA / rush+0.003
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.92CPOE+2.82
- 40.7%Third-down rate40.8%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.37Points / drive2.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 26/40 | 320 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 13 | 107 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 8 | 12 | 143 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 34/42 | 480 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 20 | 132 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 11 | 12 | 178 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 9 | 10 | 128 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 4 | 66 | 2 |
| Jermichael Finley | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| James Starks | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.88