Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
42
Model margin
+4.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.028
- 39.3%Success rate39.3%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.182
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 40.9%Third-down rate28.9%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate48.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.12
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ARI are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 6:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 5:09 | 4 | 24 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:33 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:27 | 12 | 56 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 6:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 4:08 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 10–0 |
| ARI | Q2 2:37 | 9 | 51 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| ATL | Q2 0:49 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| ARI | Q2 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–0 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 12:25 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 13–7 |
| ARI | Q3 10:00 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:18 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| ARI | Q3 4:51 | 7 | 23 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| ATL | Q3 1:43 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| ARI | Q4 14:15 | 4 | 74 | Turnover | 27–7 |
| ATL | Q4 12:27 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–7 |
| ARI | Q4 11:27 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–14 |
| ATL | Q4 7:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 34–14 |
| ARI | Q4 5:27 | 9 | 39 | Turnover | 34–14 |
| ATL | Q4 3:40 | 8 | 21 | End of half | 34–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/28 | 286 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Doug Johnson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Travis Jervey | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 2 | 2 | 108 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 5 | 6 | 49 | 2 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 23/35 | 276 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Sanders | 4 | 5 | 96 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| David Boston | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 2 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Arnold Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
6.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.55