Closing spread
DEN -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.044
- 39.6%Success rate42.2%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.2%
- 36.2%Third-down rate37.7%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.28Points / drive1.49
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 17/30 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| John Jones | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 17/33 | 191 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 5 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.09