2001 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

20·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBroncos
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.044
  • 39.6%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.2%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.49
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DEN
BALQ1 15:0010Turnover0–6
DENQ1 14:4413Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 14:4035Punt0–7
DENQ1 13:07625Punt0–7
BALQ1 10:1534Punt0–7
DENQ1 8:51417Punt0–7
BALQ1 6:54469Field goal3–7
DENQ1 4:14740Field goal3–10
BALQ1 0:221162Field goal6–10
DENQ2 10:07812Punt6–10
BALQ2 6:1636Punt6–10
DENQ2 4:42123Turnover6–10
BALQ2 4:3137Punt6–10
DENQ2 3:29618Punt6–10
BALQ2 1:38514Punt6–10
DENQ2 0:391-1End of half6–10
DENQ3 15:001030Field goal6–13
BALQ3 9:28544Punt6–13
DENQ3 6:3910Turnover6–13
BALQ3 6:29324Touchdown13–13
DENQ3 5:4237Punt13–13
BALQ3 3:38416Punt13–13
DENQ3 1:5836Punt13–13
BALQ3 0:071270Touchdown20–13
DENQ4 8:51852Turnover on downs20–13
BALQ4 5:07614Punt20–13
DENQ4 2:367-4Turnover20–13
BALQ4 1:323-2End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac17/3022121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen19653.40
Jason Brookins4317.80
Obafemi Ayanbadejo4123.00
Elvis Grbac520.40
Moe Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor48901
Shannon Sharpe55500
Qadry Ismail24441
John Jones23130
Terry Allen1190
Moe Williams1270
Obafemi Ayanbadejo1250
Brandon Stokley1130

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese17/3319112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson12342.80
Brian Griese5173.40
Olandis Gary6162.70
Eddie Kennison1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith59830
Desmond Clark57670
Kevin Kasper11170
Patrick Hape23130
Olandis Gary1150
Eddie Kennison1610
Travis McGriff0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.09