Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
48
Model margin
-1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.113EPA / play+0.025
- 48.0%Success rate41.5%
- +0.271EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- +7.00CPOE-0.27
- 46.0%Third-down rate37.1%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.26Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/28 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 21 | 115 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jacob Hester | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 11 | 133 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/40 | 254 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Pitta | 7 | 10 | 125 | 2 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| David Reed | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.55