2012 · Week 15

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

34·17

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 53°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -3

Total

48

Model margin

-1.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • +0.113EPA / play+0.025
  • 48.0%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.271EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +7.00CPOE-0.27
  • 46.0%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.80
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
DENQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:2238Turnover0–0
DENQ1 12:091149Field goal3–0
BALQ1 7:1332Punt3–0
DENQ1 6:2039Punt3–0
BALQ1 5:0939Punt3–0
DENQ1 3:273-6Punt3–0
BALQ1 2:3032Punt3–0
DENQ1 1:031178Touchdown10–0
BALQ2 11:5132Punt10–0
DENQ2 10:4139Punt10–0
BALQ2 8:47621Punt10–0
DENQ2 6:20729Punt10–0
BALQ2 2:09776Opp touchdown17–0
BALQ2 0:1500End of half17–0
BALQ3 15:00729Field goal17–3
DENQ3 12:18583Touchdown24–3
BALQ3 9:533-1Punt24–3
DENQ3 8:56439Touchdown31–3
BALQ3 7:4034Punt31–3
DENQ3 6:5447Punt31–3
BALQ3 4:501148Turnover on downs31–3
DENQ3 1:5735Punt31–3
BALQ3 0:48536Touchdown31–10
DENQ4 14:311447Field goal34–10
BALQ4 4:32161Touchdown34–17
DENQ4 4:0830Punt34–17
BALQ4 2:5742Turnover on downs34–17
DENQ4 2:0410Missed field goal34–17
BALQ4 0:332-20End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/2820410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno211155.51
Ronnie Hillman15322.10
Jacob Hester7202.91
Brock Osweiler2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker8111331
Joel Dreessen23360
Brandon Stokley12140
Demaryius Thomas49130
Knowshon Moreno2380

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/4025421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice12383.20
Bernard Pierce5204.00
Joe Flacco2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dennis Pitta7101252
Jacoby Jones34510
Tandon Doss24280
David Reed22220
Torrey Smith13140
Ray Rice3730
Anquan Boldin0600
Anthony Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.55