Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.199
- 42.8%Success rate49.4%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.328
- -0.075EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.0%Explosive rate12.0%
- +0.58CPOE+4.67
- 40.4%Third-down rate47.9%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 2.16Points / drive2.80
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/33 | 223 | 0 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 10 | 122 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/19 | 280 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 127 | 2 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79