2024 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

10·41

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • +0.011EPA / play+0.199
  • 42.8%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.328
  • -0.075EPA / rush+0.053
  • 9.0%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +0.58CPOE+4.67
  • 40.4%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.80
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
DENQ1 15:0021Turnover0–0
BALQ1 14:303-6Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:121264Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 6:17767Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 2:18744Turnover on downs0–7
BALQ2 14:55532Field goal0–10
DENQ2 12:041260Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 7:15763Touchdown7–17
DENQ2 3:471161Field goal10–17
BALQ2 0:54365Touchdown10–24
DENQ2 0:1600End of half10–24
BALQ3 15:001164Touchdown10–31
DENQ3 9:363-1Punt10–31
BALQ3 7:321189Touchdown10–38
DENQ3 1:213-1Punt10–38
BALQ3 0:04415Field goal10–41
DENQ4 12:491228Turnover on downs10–41
BALQ4 8:0935Punt10–41
DENQ4 5:17964Turnover on downs10–41
BALQ4 1:5523End of half10–41

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix19/3322301
Courtland Sutton1/1210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams12423.50
Bo Nix6366.00
Audric Estimé5357.00
Jaleel McLaughlin5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton7101220
Javonte Williams23420
Troy Franklin14190
Lil'Jordan Humphrey25110
Devaughn Vele23110
Jaleel McLaughlin33100
Adam Trautman1140
Marvin Mims Jr.1240
Bo Nix1121
Lucas Krull0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/1928030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry231064.62
Justice Hill5153.00
Lamar Jackson341.30
Josh Johnson320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers561272
Justice Hill33430
Nelson Agholor11290
Derrick Henry11270
Mark Andrews22260
Rashod Bateman34250
Patrick Ricard1131
Isaiah Likely0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.79