2022 · Week 13

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

9·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.004
  • 39.4%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.124EPA / rush+0.034
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.65CPOE-1.40
  • 29.1%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.87
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
DENQ1 15:001049Field goal3–0
BALQ1 9:0335Punt3–0
DENQ1 7:5039Punt3–0
BALQ1 5:58515Punt3–0
DENQ1 2:2435Punt3–0
BALQ1 0:5438Punt3–0
DENQ2 14:01521Punt3–0
BALQ2 10:571051Field goal3–3
DENQ2 5:5535Punt3–3
BALQ2 4:2338Punt3–3
DENQ2 2:55775Field goal6–3
BALQ2 0:37535End of half6–3
BALQ3 15:00617Punt6–3
DENQ3 11:06619Punt6–3
BALQ3 7:55428Turnover6–3
DENQ3 5:5938Field goal9–3
BALQ3 3:581149Turnover9–3
DENQ4 12:15511Punt9–3
BALQ4 9:1035Punt9–3
DENQ4 7:35533Punt9–3
BALQ4 5:021864Touchdown9–10
DENQ4 0:28337Missed field goal9–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/2218900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray17472.80
Russell Wilson22110.50
Mike Boone6183.00
Marlon Mack231.50
Montrell Washington1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Dulcich68850
Jerry Jeudy44650
Latavius Murray44140
Kendall Hinton11110
Mike Boone1180
Marlon Mack1160
Courtland Sutton0100
Montrell Washington0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley27/3218701
Lamar Jackson3/41100
James Proche0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Huntley10414.11
Kenyan Drake7294.10
Gus Edwards6122.00
Lamar Jackson199.00
Devin Duvernay294.50
Justice Hill122.00
Mark Andrews111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews47530
Demarcus Robinson78410
Devin Duvernay66340
Isaiah Likely44300
Kenyan Drake23170
DeSean Jackson23100
James Proche2290
Justice Hill2240
Patrick Ricard1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.82