Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.004
- 39.4%Success rate45.3%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.124EPA / rush+0.034
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.65CPOE-1.40
- 29.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.34Points / drive1.87
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/22 | 189 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 27/32 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3/4 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 7 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| James Proche | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82