Closing spread
DEN -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.070
- 42.4%Success rate40.5%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.66CPOE-1.92
- 37.0%Third-down rate35.2%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.48Points / drive1.47
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/32 | 117 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/40 | 175 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 8 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.22