2015 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

13·19

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBroncos
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.070
  • 42.4%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.66CPOE-1.92
  • 37.0%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.47
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DEN
BALQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:331448Field goal0–3
BALQ1 5:163-5Punt0–3
DENQ1 3:35515Field goal0–6
BALQ1 1:263-6Punt0–6
DENQ2 15:0061Punt0–6
BALQ2 10:56731Field goal3–6
DENQ2 6:42620Punt3–6
BALQ2 2:2930Punt3–6
DENQ2 1:13630Field goal3–9
BALQ2 0:0910End of half3–9
DENQ3 15:0030Opp touchdown10–9
DENQ3 14:0437Punt10–9
BALQ3 12:24735Field goal13–9
DENQ3 9:3332Punt13–9
BALQ3 8:0838Punt13–9
DENQ3 6:45616Punt13–9
BALQ3 2:40515Opp touchdown13–16
BALQ3 0:10515Punt13–16
DENQ4 13:511781Field goal13–19
BALQ4 2:551562Turnover13–19
DENQ4 0:2800End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/3211702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett14433.10
Javorius Allen9303.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marlon Brown22250
Crockett Gillmore24230
Maxx Williams12150
Steve Smith27130
Justin Forsett47130
Michael Campanaro1280
Javorius Allen1140
Kamar Aiken13-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning24/4017501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman12413.40
C.J. Anderson12292.40
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders812650
Demaryius Thomas711600
Jordan Norwood25250
C.J. Anderson48190
Owen Daniels2250
Andre Caldwell1110
Virgil Green0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.22