Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
44
Model margin
+2.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.021
- 46.3%Success rate44.7%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.31CPOE+2.34
- 36.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.93Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 22/37 | 316 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 5 | 91 | 1 |
| James Proche | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 12/21 | 113 | 0 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 7/16 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 6 | 10 | 46 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26