2021 · Week 4

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

23·7

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

44

Model margin

+2.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBroncos
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.021
  • 46.3%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.4%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +0.31CPOE+2.34
  • 36.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DEN
DENQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:58613Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:08420Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:38428Punt0–0
DENQ1 4:57524Punt0–0
BALQ1 2:2333Punt0–0
DENQ1 1:25542Touchdown0–7
BALQ2 14:18875Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 10:213-3Punt7–7
BALQ2 8:36460Touchdown14–7
DENQ2 7:09529Punt14–7
BALQ2 3:59439Punt14–7
DENQ2 1:0230Punt14–7
BALQ2 0:3149Field goal17–7
BALQ3 15:0034Punt17–7
DENQ3 13:21822Punt17–7
BALQ3 8:37410Punt17–7
DENQ3 6:55618Punt17–7
BALQ3 4:181363Field goal20–7
DENQ4 13:3735Punt20–7
BALQ4 12:3339Punt20–7
DENQ4 10:27510Punt20–7
BALQ4 8:261588Field goal23–7
DENQ4 1:51870Turnover23–7
BALQ4 0:0315End of half23–7

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson22/3731610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray18593.31
Lamar Jackson7284.00
Le'Veon Bell4112.80
Devonta Freeman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown45911
James Proche56740
Mark Andrews58670
Sammy Watkins47490
Devin Duvernay36310
Patrick Ricard1140
Le'Veon Bell0100
Josh Oliver0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock12/2111301
Teddy Bridgewater7/166510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon9566.20
Javonte Williams7486.90
Teddy Bridgewater122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton38470
Noah Fant610461
Tim Patrick36390
Kendall Hinton13130
Melvin Gordon24110
Albert Okwuegbunam12110
Javonte Williams33110
Diontae Spencer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.26