2013 · Week 1

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

27·49

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+7.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBroncos
  • -0.096EPA / play+0.205
  • 36.3%Success rate50.2%
  • -0.003EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.263EPA / rush-0.029
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.63CPOE+6.21
  • 36.0%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.85
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DEN
BALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:10618Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:091080Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:11741Punt7–0
BALQ1 3:39826Punt7–0
DENQ2 14:4568Punt7–0
BALQ2 12:5731Turnover7–6
DENQ2 11:40124Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 11:35840Punt13–7
BALQ2 8:0811Touchdown14–7
DENQ2 8:03790Touchdown14–14
BALQ2 5:343-4Punt14–14
DENQ2 4:073-6Punt14–14
BALQ2 3:191277Field goal17–14
DENQ2 0:0700End of half17–14
DENQ3 15:00680Touchdown17–21
BALQ3 12:303-6Punt17–21
DENQ3 11:08210Touchdown17–28
BALQ3 10:2833Punt17–28
DENQ3 9:06958Touchdown17–35
BALQ3 6:3739Punt17–35
DENQ3 4:55520Punt17–35
BALQ3 3:09612Punt17–35
DENQ3 1:4034Punt17–35
BALQ3 0:55414Punt17–35
DENQ4 14:46566Touchdown17–42
BALQ4 13:1349Turnover17–42
BALQ4 12:06565Touchdown24–42
DENQ4 10:2837Punt24–42
BALQ4 8:07757Field goal27–42
DENQ4 5:29380Touchdown27–49
BALQ4 4:3061Punt27–49
DENQ4 2:19312End of half27–49

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco34/6236222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice12363.01
Bernard Pierce9222.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith48920
Dallas Clark712870
Marlon Brown46651
Ray Rice811350
Brandon Stokley410340
Jacoby Jones34240
Ed Dickson15130
Bernard Pierce0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4246270

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno9283.10
Montee Ball8243.00
Ronnie Hillman4153.80
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas5111612
Julius Thomas571102
Wes Welker911672
Knowshon Moreno33370
Eric Decker27320
Andre Caldwell11281
Ronnie Hillman22270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.52.9%5.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.62