Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+7.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.096EPA / play+0.205
- 36.3%Success rate50.2%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.029
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.63CPOE+6.21
- 36.0%Third-down rate47.1%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 1.33Points / drive2.85
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 34/62 | 362 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 8 | 92 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 12 | 87 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 10 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/42 | 462 | 7 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 11 | 161 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 110 | 2 |
| Wes Welker | 9 | 11 | 67 | 2 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.62