2012 · DIV

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

38·35

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 13°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -9.5

Total

44

Model margin

+6.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBroncos
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.113
  • 41.5%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.271
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.106
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.27CPOE+7.00
  • 37.1%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.26
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–DEN
BALQ1 15:00518Opp touchdown0–7
BALQ1 12:14569Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 10:3134Opp touchdown14–7
DENQ1 9:491374Touchdown14–14
BALQ1 4:02835Punt14–14
DENQ2 14:40518Punt14–14
BALQ2 12:47416Punt14–14
DENQ2 11:01886Touchdown14–21
BALQ2 7:2636Punt14–21
DENQ2 6:261347Missed field goal14–21
BALQ2 1:16358Touchdown21–21
DENQ2 0:3611End of half21–27
DENQ3 15:0000Touchdown21–28
BALQ3 14:47723Turnover21–28
DENQ3 12:3288Punt21–28
BALQ3 9:45620Punt21–28
DENQ3 6:341021Turnover21–28
BALQ3 2:47537Touchdown28–28
DENQ3 0:2032Punt28–28
BALQ4 13:4634Punt28–28
DENQ4 12:091168Touchdown28–35
BALQ4 7:11849Turnover on downs28–35
DENQ4 3:12516Punt28–35
BALQ4 1:09377Touchdown35–35
DENQ4 0:3100End of half35–35
BALOT920Punt35–35
DENOT623Punt35–35
BALOT631Punt35–35
DENOT731Turnover35–35
BALOT516Field goal38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/3433130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice301314.41
Bernard Pierce5142.80
Joe Flacco273.50
Torrey Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith36982
Jacoby Jones25771
Anquan Boldin611710
Dennis Pitta35550
Ed Dickson34290
Ray Rice0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning28/4329032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Hillman22833.80
Knowshon Moreno10323.20
Jacob Hester8111.40
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker610840
Joel Dreessen68460
Jacob Tamme33440
Demaryius Thomas37371
Brandon Stokley36271
Knowshon Moreno22211
Ronnie Hillman34200
Jacob Hester1270
Matt Willis1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+6.84