Closing spread
DEN -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+6.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.113
- 41.5%Success rate48.0%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.27CPOE+7.00
- 37.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.80Points / drive2.26
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/34 | 331 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 30 | 131 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 6 | 98 | 2 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/43 | 290 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Hillman | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacob Hester | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jacob Hester | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+6.84