Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.035
- 43.4%Success rate45.8%
- -0.009EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.003
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.98CPOE-3.77
- 33.1%Third-down rate45.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.60Points / drive2.01
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 22/34 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jake Butt | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/40 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 7 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.33