2018 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

14·27

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.4%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.003
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.98CPOE-3.77
  • 33.1%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.01
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN
2010 · W5DEN @ BAL17–31BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
BALQ1 15:003-3Punt6–0
DENQ1 13:3316Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 13:29548Touchdown7–7
DENQ1 10:57965Touchdown14–7
BALQ1 7:02740Field goal14–10
DENQ1 3:38417Punt14–10
BALQ1 0:43520Punt14–10
DENQ2 13:4233Punt14–10
BALQ2 12:15952Touchdown14–17
DENQ2 8:2639Punt14–17
BALQ2 7:00452Missed field goal14–17
DENQ2 4:32512Punt14–17
BALQ2 1:47615Punt14–17
DENQ2 0:5130Punt14–17
BALQ2 0:26216Field goal14–20
DENQ3 15:00411Punt14–20
BALQ3 13:451577Touchdown14–27
DENQ3 7:261263Punt14–27
BALQ3 1:22617Punt14–27
DENQ4 14:061150Turnover14–27
BALQ4 9:013-3Punt14–27
DENQ4 7:221357Turnover on downs14–27
BALQ4 2:57314End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum22/3419201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman13534.11
Emmanuel Sanders13535.01
Phillip Lindsay4205.00
Devontae Booker5102.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas55630
Emmanuel Sanders58380
Courtland Sutton23370
Devontae Booker57340
Jake Butt2480
Jeff Heuerman2470
Royce Freeman1150
Phillip Lindsay0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/4027710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins18683.81
Javorius Allen671.21
Joe Flacco420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown59860
Michael Crabtree710610
Mark Andrews23590
Willie Snead35390
Javorius Allen34191
Alex Collins3460
Maxx Williams1150
Nick Boyle1120
Lamar Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.33