Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
39
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/32 | 135 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.