Closing spread
JAX -8.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.282
- 36.9%Success rate40.8%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.375
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- 31.3%Third-down rate34.6%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.05Points / drive0.28
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 24/34 | 249 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 15/30 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 4/7 | 34 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 1 |
| James Jackson | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Quinn | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 9 | 14 | 88 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 2 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Damon Jones | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Rickey Dudley | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.89