2017 · Week 11

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

19·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

JAX -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

-3.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.146
  • 41.7%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.096
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.97CPOE-5.42
  • 36.9%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.07
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:56729Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:4910Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 8:36433Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 6:543-3Punt7–0
JAXQ1 5:0636Punt7–0
CLEQ1 3:3034Punt7–0
JAXQ1 2:47747Field goal10–0
CLEQ2 14:14566Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 11:2837Punt10–7
CLEQ2 10:2030Punt10–7
JAXQ2 9:21629Punt10–7
CLEQ2 5:433-1Punt10–7
JAXQ2 4:441355Missed field goal10–7
CLEQ2 0:3000End of half10–7
JAXQ3 15:0037Punt10–7
CLEQ3 13:29617Punt10–7
JAXQ3 11:3232Punt10–7
JAXQ3 10:2332Turnover10–7
CLEQ3 9:27629Punt10–7
JAXQ3 5:531129Punt10–7
CLEQ4 14:2539Punt10–7
JAXQ4 11:5931Punt10–7
CLEQ4 10:34411Turnover10–7
JAXQ4 8:23731Field goal13–7
CLEQ4 3:31734Turnover13–7
JAXQ4 1:4437Punt19–7
CLEQ4 1:241-20Opp touchdown19–7
CLEQ4 1:14636Turnover on downs19–7
JAXQ4 0:1600End of half19–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles17/3015410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette281114.00
T.J. Yeldon5153.00
Chris Ivory661.00
Blake Bortles441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee59450
Dede Westbrook36350
Marcedes Lewis22261
Keelan Cole36240
James O'Shaughnessy11120
Leonard Fournette2370
T.J. Yeldon1250

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer16/3217912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShone Kizer5224.40
Isaiah Crowell11181.60
Duke Johnson2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Coleman611800
Duke Johnson46561
Ricardo Louis14150
David Njoku11130
Kenny Britt2250
Seth DeValve1350
Matt Dayes1250
Rashard Higgins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.3%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.29