Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
-3.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.146
- 41.7%Success rate38.4%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.97CPOE-5.42
- 36.9%Third-down rate33.6%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.81Points / drive1.07
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 17/30 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 28 | 111 | 4.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 16/32 | 179 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Coleman | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Ricardo Louis | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Dayes | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.29