Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play-0.023
- 37.1%Success rate41.5%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.067
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.22CPOE-0.88
- 28.8%Third-down rate36.6%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.09Points / drive1.74
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/34 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| David Bell | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 14/30 | 220 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 4 | 94 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.51