2024 · Week 2

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

18·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.179EPA / play-0.023
  • 37.1%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.067
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.22CPOE-0.88
  • 28.8%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.74
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00510Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:431797Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 2:2935Punt7–0
CLEQ1 1:271246Field goal10–0
JAXQ2 9:521066Field goal10–3
CLEQ2 4:44752Field goal13–3
JAXQ2 0:2710End of half13–3
CLEQ3 15:0036Punt13–3
JAXQ3 14:163-7Punt13–3
CLEQ3 12:36712Field goal16–3
JAXQ3 10:201044Missed field goal16–3
CLEQ3 5:4858Punt16–3
JAXQ3 2:29372Touchdown16–10
CLEQ3 1:1133Punt16–10
JAXQ4 14:141673Field goal16–13
CLEQ4 7:321569Punt18–13
JAXQ4 1:481-2Safety18–13
CLEQ4 1:4434Punt18–13
JAXQ4 1:27762End of half18–13

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/3418600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford7649.10
D'Onta Foreman14423.00
Deshaun Watson5204.01
Jameis Winston242.00
Pierre Strong1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy56730
Elijah Moore68440
David Bell33270
Amari Cooper38110
Jordan Akins11100
Pierre Strong12100
D'Onta Foreman1190
Cedric Tillman1220
Jerome Ford1200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence14/3022000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne13524.01
Trevor Lawrence24522.50
D'Ernest Johnson5265.20
Devin Duvernay144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.24940
Brenton Strange36650
Gabe Davis37430
Luke Farrell22130
Travis Etienne3460
Parker Washington0100
Christian Kirk13-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.51