2023 · Week 14

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

27·31

Browns

Cleveland

QB Joe Flacco

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.127
  • 43.1%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.131
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.121
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.62CPOE-5.66
  • 38.5%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.56
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:3937Punt0–7
CLEQ1 9:1832Punt0–7
JAXQ1 7:48645Punt0–7
CLEQ1 5:3230Punt0–7
JAXQ1 4:2034Punt0–7
CLEQ1 2:5531Punt0–7
JAXQ1 1:56512Punt0–7
CLEQ1 0:05472Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 13:4010Turnover0–14
CLEQ2 13:27538Turnover0–14
JAXQ2 10:41613Punt0–14
CLEQ2 7:03117Turnover0–14
JAXQ2 6:53212Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 6:14518Punt7–14
JAXQ2 4:01637Turnover7–14
CLEQ2 1:47523Punt7–14
JAXQ2 1:0730Punt7–14
CLEQ2 0:47520Punt7–14
JAXQ2 0:0500End of half7–14
JAXQ3 15:0032Turnover7–14
CLEQ3 14:04722Touchdown7–21
JAXQ3 9:3930Punt7–21
CLEQ3 7:382-4Turnover7–21
JAXQ3 7:26625Touchdown14–21
CLEQ3 4:59731Punt14–21
JAXQ3 0:4239Turnover14–21
CLEQ4 14:10448Touchdown14–28
JAXQ4 12:34960Touchdown21–28
CLEQ4 8:521029Punt21–28
JAXQ4 4:24518Turnover on downs21–28
CLEQ4 3:3030Field goal21–31
JAXQ4 3:101050Touchdown27–31
CLEQ4 1:3300End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence28/5025733

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne14352.51
D'Ernest Johnson3124.00
Trevor Lawrence3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram1112952
Calvin Ridley413530
Travis Etienne44370
Zay Jones514290
Parker Washington23271
D'Ernest Johnson23160

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/4531131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford12514.30
Kareem Hunt10272.71
Dorian Thompson-Robinson155.00
Pierre Strong100.00
Joe Flacco4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku68912
Amari Cooper714770
Elijah Moore36420
David Bell13411
Jerome Ford56310
Cedric Tillman24230
Kareem Hunt1130
Jordan Akins1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.83