Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.127
- 43.1%Success rate39.3%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.131
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.121
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.62CPOE-5.66
- 38.5%Third-down rate32.3%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.56
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 28/50 | 257 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 11 | 12 | 95 | 2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 13 | 53 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 14 | 29 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/45 | 311 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 8 | 91 | 2 |
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 14 | 77 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| David Bell | 1 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.83