2020 · Week 12

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

27·25

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mike Glennon

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-4.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.050
  • 46.9%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.086
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.55CPOE-0.40
  • 45.5%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.74
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:0531Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:46519Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 6:35555Touchdown7–3
JAXQ1 3:401157Field goal7–6
CLEQ2 13:371369Field goal10–6
JAXQ2 7:03577Touchdown10–13
CLEQ2 4:14979Touchdown17–13
JAXQ2 1:10639Missed field goal17–13
CLEQ3 15:00113Turnover17–13
JAXQ3 14:48630Touchdown17–19
CLEQ3 11:41949Field goal20–19
JAXQ3 6:45634Punt20–19
CLEQ3 3:10886Touchdown27–19
JAXQ4 14:13527Punt27–19
CLEQ4 11:591177Turnover on downs27–19
JAXQ4 5:291271Touchdown27–25
CLEQ4 2:14533End of half27–25

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/2925820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb191447.61
Kareem Hunt10626.20
Baker Mayfield410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry8111431
Nick Chubb33320
KhaDarel Hodge33310
Rashard Higgins12150
Austin Hooper22131
Harrison Bryant12130
Stephen Carlson11110
Taywan Taylor0100
Kareem Hunt0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon20/3523520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson221285.81
Mike Glennon263.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Collin Johnson48961
Keelan Cole36440
James Robinson56310
Laviska Shenault Jr.34310
James O'Shaughnessy24170
Tyler Eifert34161
Ben Ellefson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.1%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.93