Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-4.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.050
- 46.9%Success rate42.0%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.086
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.55CPOE-0.40
- 45.5%Third-down rate40.6%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.32Points / drive1.74
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/29 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 19 | 144 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 11 | 143 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 20/35 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 22 | 128 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Johnson | 4 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Ben Ellefson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.93