2014 · Week 7

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

6·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.161
  • 38.1%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.184
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.114
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -7.11CPOE-7.00
  • 29.9%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.44Points / drive0.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
CLEQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:55623Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:413-1Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:0910Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 7:5230Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 6:30525Punt3–0
CLEQ1 3:32630Punt3–0
JAXQ1 0:38635Punt3–0
CLEQ2 13:4536Punt3–0
JAXQ2 12:28624Punt3–0
CLEQ2 9:371476Field goal6–0
JAXQ2 4:1636Turnover6–0
CLEQ2 3:0449Turnover on downs6–0
JAXQ2 1:33471Touchdown6–7
CLEQ2 0:2727End of half6–7
JAXQ3 15:003-3Punt6–7
CLEQ3 13:103-1Turnover6–7
JAXQ3 12:08613Field goal6–10
CLEQ3 10:00510Punt6–10
JAXQ3 8:263-2Punt6–10
CLEQ3 6:2235Punt6–10
JAXQ3 5:221175Turnover6–10
CLEQ3 1:37843Turnover on downs6–10
JAXQ4 14:19725Punt6–10
CLEQ4 10:42553Punt6–10
JAXQ4 7:47515Touchdown6–17
JAXQ4 5:5800Touchdown6–17
CLEQ4 5:5820Turnover6–17
JAXQ4 5:1227Touchdown6–24
CLEQ4 4:35814Turnover on downs6–24
JAXQ4 2:12423End of half6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer16/4121501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate16362.30
Isaiah Crowell7182.60
Andrew Hawkins188.00
Terrance West581.60
Brian Hoyer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Hawkins591120
Miles Austin38530
Taylor Gabriel37390
Jordan Cameron1650
Isaiah Crowell1250
Ray Agnew1130
Gary Barnidge0100
Travis Benjamin0400
Terrance West1100
Ben Tate12-20

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles17/3115913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Denard Robinson221275.81
Blake Bortles5377.40
Storm Johnson6162.71
Marqise Lee252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson47601
Clay Harbor66340
Jordan Todman11260
Marqise Lee13200
Cecil Shorts39120
Allen Hurns1270
Denard Robinson0100
Ace Sanders1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.00