Closing spread
CLE -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.161
- 38.1%Success rate37.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.114
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -7.11CPOE-7.00
- 29.9%Third-down rate32.0%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.44Points / drive0.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 16/41 | 215 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 16 | 36 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 9 | 112 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 17/31 | 159 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 22 | 127 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Storm Johnson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 6 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 3 | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00