Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.091
- 36.3%Success rate40.3%
- -0.210EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.127EPA / rush-0.151
- 7.6%Explosive rate5.4%
- -11.15CPOE-4.62
- 34.3%Third-down rate38.1%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 1.10Points / drive1.09
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 22/41 | 210 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Montell Owens | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 7 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jarett Dillard | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 11 | 23 | 0 |
| Chastin West | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 17/24 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 21 | 115 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Clayton | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97