2011 · Week 11

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

10·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

34.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.173EPA / play-0.091
  • 36.3%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.127EPA / rush-0.151
  • 7.6%Explosive rate5.4%
  • -11.15CPOE-4.62
  • 34.3%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 1.10Points / drive1.09
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:10412Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:18834Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:431987Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 10:5031Punt7–0
JAXQ2 9:2734Punt7–0
CLEQ2 7:53830Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 3:211158Punt7–7
CLEQ2 0:0500End of half7–7
JAXQ3 15:00716Punt7–7
CLEQ3 12:241251Turnover7–7
JAXQ3 5:54520Punt7–7
CLEQ3 3:371285Touchdown7–14
JAXQ4 12:151256Field goal10–14
CLEQ4 5:39760Missed field goal10–14
JAXQ4 2:491550End of half10–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert22/4121000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew21874.11
Montell Owens2105.00
Blaine Gabbert2105.00
Deji Karim410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis711640
Jason Hill37490
Maurice Jones-Drew46310
Jarett Dillard33290
Mike Thomas311230
Chastin West23140

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy17/2419911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya211155.51
Colt McCoy5275.40
Thomas Clayton144.00
Josh Cribbs122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little58590
Jordan Norwood12510
Josh Cribbs33201
Mohamed Massaquoi22190
Chris Ogbonnaya23190
Benjamin Watson24180
Owen Marecic22130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.97