Closing spread
JAX -8.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+25.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.206EPA / play+0.310
- 43.1%Success rate59.3%
- -0.257EPA / dropback+0.731
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.053
- 7.8%Explosive rate16.7%
- +10.32CPOE+22.32
- 12.5%Third-down rate55.6%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.11Points / drive3.76
- 3.9%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/22 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| KC Concepcion | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Boston | 2 | 4 | 59 | 1 |
| KC Concepcion | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Raheim Sanders | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/23 | 245 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 5 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Cameron | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
0.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
96.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+23.32
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+25.54