2026 · Week 1

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

10·34

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

JAX -8.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.067EPA / play+0.124
  • 42.8%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.228
  • -0.202EPA / rush-0.005
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.41CPOE+3.75
  • 32.6%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.66
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
CLEQ1 15:00532Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 12:06859Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 8:1134Punt0–7
JAXQ1 6:24979Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 1:423-8Punt0–14
JAXQ2 14:521043Field goal0–17
CLEQ2 9:0926Turnover0–17
JAXQ2 8:27544Touchdown0–24
CLEQ2 6:18515Punt0–24
JAXQ2 3:5449Punt0–24
CLEQ2 1:32746End of half0–24
JAXQ3 15:00460Touchdown0–31
CLEQ3 12:08620Field goal3–31
JAXQ3 8:311057Field goal3–34
CLEQ3 1:481468Turnover on downs3–34
JAXQ4 8:12412Punt3–34
CLEQ4 4:39689Touchdown10–34
JAXQ4 1:5200End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2220511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson6386.30
Quinshon Judkins12332.80
KC Concepcion3155.00
Raheim Sanders111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Denzel Boston24591
KC Concepcion45430
Jerry Jeudy24260
Raheim Sanders33250
Harold Fannin Jr.23210
Quinshon Judkins22170
Blake Whiteheart11140

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/2324540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bhayshul Tuten15664.40
Ameer Abdullah4328.00
Chris Rodriguez Jr.6233.80
Trevor Lawrence231.50
Jakobi Meyers122.00
Nick Mullens3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington56831
Jakobi Meyers22401
Brian Thomas Jr.33400
Brenton Strange23231
Bhayshul Tuten11220
Josh Cameron22201
Nate Boerkircher1190
Ameer Abdullah1100
Quintin Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.69