2013 · Week 13

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

32·28

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.156EPA / play-0.075
  • 38.3%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.076
  • 6.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -4.13CPOE-3.79
  • 31.0%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.27
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE
2010 · W11CLE @ JAX20–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–CLE
JAXQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:58347Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 10:51975Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 7:04426Punt7–7
JAXQ1 5:22830Punt7–7
CLEQ1 2:201197Touchdown7–14
JAXQ2 12:0310Turnover7–14
CLEQ2 11:453-8Punt7–14
JAXQ2 10:151130Punt7–14
CLEQ2 5:44517Punt7–14
JAXQ2 4:1032Punt7–14
CLEQ2 2:4710Turnover7–14
JAXQ2 2:35317Touchdown14–14
CLEQ2 1:1910Turnover14–14
JAXQ2 1:1432Field goal17–14
CLEQ2 0:48513Turnover20–14
JAXQ2 0:0500Field goal20–14
CLEQ3 15:001260Touchdown20–21
JAXQ3 9:443-3Punt20–21
CLEQ3 8:481029Missed field goal20–21
JAXQ3 2:4738Punt20–21
CLEQ3 1:271135Punt20–21
JAXQ4 11:341041Punt22–21
CLEQ4 7:4710Safety22–21
JAXQ4 7:4222Field goal22–21
JAXQ4 6:44419Field goal25–21
CLEQ4 4:14195Touchdown25–28
JAXQ4 3:551075Touchdown32–28
CLEQ4 0:40728End of half32–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne22/4019521
Maurice Jones-Drew1/1810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew23773.30
Jordan Todman5316.20
Ace Sanders144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ace Sanders811670
Cecil Shorts611641
Marcedes Lewis34261
Clay Harbor23231
Jordan Todman12120
Mike Brown1270
Maurice Jones-Drew2840

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden24/4037032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee14574.11
Chris Ogbonnaya7202.90
Fozzy Whittaker7152.10
Brandon Weeden252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon10152612
Jordan Cameron47430
Davone Bess35280
Willis McGahee22140
Chris Ogbonnaya25140
Greg Little2491
Fozzy Whittaker1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.66