Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.156EPA / play-0.075
- 38.3%Success rate39.2%
- -0.143EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.076
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- -4.13CPOE-3.79
- 31.0%Third-down rate34.9%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.03Points / drive1.27
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. CLE are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 22/40 | 195 | 2 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1/1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 77 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Sanders | 8 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 11 | 64 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 24/40 | 370 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 10 | 15 | 261 | 2 |
| Jordan Cameron | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.66