2001 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Anthony Wright

18·40

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -13.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.036
  • 36.1%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.132EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.151
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 32.7%Third-down rate31.5%
  • 32.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.34
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.115

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
DALQ1 14:513-4Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 13:3138Punt3–0
DALQ1 11:553-2Punt3–0
DALQ1 10:2331Field goal6–0
PHIQ1 8:21962Touchdown6–7
DALQ1 3:4932Punt6–7
PHIQ1 2:3841Punt6–7
DALQ1 1:2336Punt6–7
PHIQ2 14:44217Touchdown6–14
DALQ2 14:3136Punt6–14
PHIQ2 12:493-7Punt6–14
PHIQ2 11:5736Punt6–20
DALQ2 10:3110Opp touchdown6–21
PHIQ2 10:2400Opp touchdown6–21
DALQ2 10:243-16Turnover6–21
PHIQ2 9:13530Touchdown6–27
DALQ2 6:4700Field goal6–27
PHIQ2 6:3335Field goal6–30
DALQ2 5:43615Punt6–30
PHIQ2 2:54821Field goal6–33
DALQ2 0:1613End of half6–33
DALQ3 15:00546Turnover on downs6–33
PHIQ3 12:38861Touchdown6–40
DALQ3 8:34833Turnover6–40
PHIQ3 4:06655Turnover6–40
DALQ3 1:2032Punt6–40
PHIQ3 0:0000Punt6–40
PHIQ4 15:0035Punt6–40
DALQ4 12:4431Punt6–40
PHIQ4 11:4938Punt6–40
DALQ4 9:28944Touchdown12–40
PHIQ4 4:4635Punt12–40
DALQ4 2:196105Touchdown18–40
PHIQ4 0:381-1End of half18–40

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Clint Stoerner4/74420
Anthony Wright7/233301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick1010710.70
Emmitt Smith16583.60
Michael Wiley284.00
Anthony Wright122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wiley34281
Darrin Chiaverini14210
Mike Lucky2480
Wane McGarity1250
Emmitt Smith1240
J.J. Huggins1210
Joey Galloway0700
Reggie Swinton0100
Ken-Yon Rambo0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb14/2816230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter20995.01
Donovan McNabb4194.80
Cecil Martin5142.80
Koy Detmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston33711
Chad Lewis44432
James Thrash27250
Cecil Martin36140
Correll Buckhalter1290
Na Brown0100
Brian Mitchell0100
Jeff Thomason0100
Freddie Mitchell1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.71
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.85