Closing spread
PHI -13.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.036
- 36.1%Success rate39.2%
- -0.132EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.151
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- 32.7%Third-down rate31.5%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 0.93Points / drive1.34
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.115
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Stoerner | 4/7 | 44 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 7/23 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 10 | 107 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wiley | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 14/28 | 162 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85