Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.111
- 41.4%Success rate45.2%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.128EPA / rush+0.056
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- -4.87CPOE+6.20
- 37.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.68Points / drive2.46
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 15/28 | 147 | 1 | 2 |
| Trey Lance | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10/15 | 143 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner McKee | 3/4 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 31 | 167 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 7 | 120 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| E.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.86