2024 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

7·41

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.4%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.128EPA / rush+0.056
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -4.87CPOE+6.20
  • 37.1%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.68Points / drive2.46
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:00735Opp touchdown0–7
DALQ1 11:431365Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 5:3835Punt7–7
DALQ1 4:2938Punt7–7
PHIQ1 2:4839Punt7–7
DALQ1 0:56731Punt7–7
PHIQ2 12:491176Touchdown7–14
DALQ2 6:3816Turnover7–14
PHIQ2 6:301121Field goal7–17
DALQ2 1:55616Turnover7–17
PHIQ2 0:36465Touchdown7–24
PHIQ3 15:001355Field goal7–27
DALQ3 8:0330Punt7–27
PHIQ3 6:34865Touchdown7–34
DALQ3 2:44960Turnover7–34
PHIQ4 14:25775Touchdown7–41
DALQ4 10:031044Missed field goal7–41
PHIQ4 4:4037Punt7–41
DALQ4 2:2433Punt7–41
PHIQ4 1:0100End of half7–41

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush15/2814712
Trey Lance1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle231044.50
KaVontae Turpin2189.00
Ezekiel Elliott320.70
Cooper Rush122.00
Trey Lance111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks48520
Jalen Tolbert34301
Jake Ferguson35180
KaVontae Turpin14160
Jalen Brooks11120
Jonathan Mingo13120
Rico Dowdle1140
Ryan Flournoy1230
Hunter Luepke1110

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett10/1514310
Tanner McKee3/45420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley311675.40
Tyrion Davis-Price372.30
Kenny Gainwell341.30
Kenny Pickett331.01
Tanner McKee2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith671202
A.J. Brown35361
Grant Calcaterra12340
Kenny Gainwell1150
Saquon Barkley2220
E.J. Jenkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.86