Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.121
- 46.3%Success rate48.0%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.86CPOE+3.68
- 47.5%Third-down rate49.6%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.30Points / drive2.67
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/27 | 197 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 13 | 94 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 24/39 | 271 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.61