2023 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

13·33

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.121
  • 46.3%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.86CPOE+3.68
  • 47.5%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.67
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:001069Turnover0–7
DALQ1 5:421547Field goal0–10
PHIQ1 0:50741Field goal3–10
DALQ2 12:341275Touchdown3–17
PHIQ2 6:14949Field goal6–17
DALQ2 1:48950Touchdown6–24
PHIQ2 0:20317End of half6–24
PHIQ3 15:00426Turnover6–24
DALQ3 13:3136Punt6–24
PHIQ3 12:0234Punt6–24
DALQ3 11:013-3Opp touchdown13–24
DALQ3 10:411059Field goal13–27
PHIQ3 4:49946Turnover on downs13–27
DALQ3 0:251229Field goal13–30
PHIQ4 9:40867Turnover13–30
DALQ4 6:38856Field goal13–33
PHIQ4 1:0825End of half13–33

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/2719700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift11393.50
Jalen Hurts5306.00
Kenny Gainwell4287.00
Boston Scott393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown913940
DeVonta Smith510730
Dallas Goedert44300
Olamide Zaccheaus11280

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott24/3927120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard16593.70
Rico Dowdle12463.81
KaVontae Turpin12222.00
Dak Prescott3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Ferguson58720
CeeDee Lamb610711
Michael Gallup35481
Brandin Cooks25370
Tony Pollard78370
Rico Dowdle1160
Jalen Tolbert0100
KaVontae Turpin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.9%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.61