Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cowboysedge mapEagles
- +0.271EPA / play+0.027
- 48.3%Success rate34.0%
- +0.425EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.167
- 0.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +7.73CPOE+0.87
- 72.7%Third-down rate42.9%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.98Points / drive1.99
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.97