2026 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

38·21

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.142EPA / play-0.086
  • 48.8%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback-0.055
  • +0.017EPA / rush-0.144
  • 6.6%Explosive rate4.6%
  • +1.17CPOE-3.23
  • 48.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate77.8%
  • 2.97Points / drive1.84
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:00628Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 12:30470Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 10:25982Touchdown10–7
PHIQ1 5:321562Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 13:251481Touchdown17–14
PHIQ2 5:37717Punt17–14
DALQ2 2:2836Punt17–14
PHIQ2 1:3935Punt17–14
DALQ2 1:14778Field goal20–14
PHIQ3 15:001784Touchdown20–21
DALQ3 5:441055Touchdown28–21
PHIQ3 1:30415Punt28–21
DALQ4 14:17961Field goal31–21
PHIQ4 9:10434Turnover31–21
DALQ4 7:4739Punt31–21
PHIQ4 6:1041Turnover on downs31–21
DALQ4 4:48616Touchdown38–21
PHIQ4 2:21833End of half38–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott15/2721230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams251556.21
Tyler Goodson10383.80
Dak Prescott284.00
Hunter Luepke133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb512742
Ryan Flournoy44700
George Pickens46571
Brevyn Spann-Ford22110
Jake Ferguson0100
Jonathan Mingo0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tanner McKee23/3521111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley7628.91
Dameon Pierce14473.41
Elijah Mitchell3113.70
Tanner McKee111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Makai Lemon78671
Dallas Goedert57480
Marquise Brown25300
Elijah Mitchell34230
Darius Cooper13170
Elijah Moore22160
Saquon Barkley2290
Dameon Pierce1110
Eli Stowers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.18