2022 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Gardner Minshew

34·40

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4

Total

48

Model margin

+2.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.031
  • 47.9%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback+0.082
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.031
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.05CPOE-1.95
  • 46.2%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 2.43Points / drive2.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00668Field goal3–0
DALQ1 11:16522Opp touchdown10–0
DALQ1 9:181475Touchdown10–7
PHIQ1 1:52418Turnover10–7
DALQ2 14:52742Touchdown10–14
PHIQ2 11:341074Touchdown17–14
DALQ2 7:081272Field goal17–17
PHIQ2 1:491036Field goal20–17
DALQ2 0:0600End of half20–17
DALQ3 15:0036Punt20–17
PHIQ3 13:371077Touchdown27–17
DALQ3 9:00849Field goal27–20
PHIQ3 5:0139Turnover27–20
DALQ3 4:11531Touchdown27–27
PHIQ3 2:121375Touchdown34–27
DALQ4 9:59875Touchdown34–34
PHIQ4 5:49532Turnover34–34
DALQ4 4:19531Field goal34–37
PHIQ4 2:191-3Turnover34–37
DALQ4 2:07418Field goal34–40
PHIQ4 1:41856Turnover on downs34–40
DALQ4 0:1400End of half34–40

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew24/4035522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders21653.10
Kenny Gainwell4174.30
Gardner Minshew451.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith8121132
A.J. Brown681030
Dallas Goedert33670
Kenny Gainwell44410
Quez Watkins15190
Zach Pascal1160
Miles Sanders1160

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/3534731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott16553.41
Dak Prescott6416.80
Tony Pollard9192.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb10111202
Tony Pollard68610
T.Y. Hilton11520
Dalton Schultz34430
Michael Gallup47361
Jake Ferguson11240
Ezekiel Elliott1160
Noah Brown1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.80