Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
48
Model margin
+2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.031
- 47.9%Success rate45.2%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.031
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.05CPOE-1.95
- 46.2%Third-down rate46.2%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 2.43Points / drive2.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 24/40 | 355 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 12 | 113 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 67 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/35 | 347 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 11 | 120 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 52 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80