2023 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

23·28

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.121EPA / play+0.061
  • 48.0%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.007
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.68CPOE+3.86
  • 49.6%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.30
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:371382Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 5:46853Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 1:3731Punt7–7
DALQ1 0:051072Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 11:161254Touchdown14–14
DALQ2 5:09842Field goal17–14
PHIQ2 1:15621Punt17–14
DALQ2 0:0400End of half17–14
PHIQ3 15:00660Touchdown17–21
DALQ3 11:23842Punt17–21
PHIQ3 7:311360Touchdown17–28
DALQ3 1:131364Turnover on downs17–28
PHIQ4 10:0735Punt17–28
DALQ4 8:36752Touchdown23–28
PHIQ4 6:2337Punt23–28
DALQ4 4:431045Turnover on downs23–28
PHIQ4 1:1732Punt23–28
DALQ4 0:46633Turnover23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott29/4437430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12514.30
Dak Prescott6142.30
Rico Dowdle284.00
KaVontae Turpin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb11161910
Jake Ferguson710911
Jalen Tolbert35491
Michael Gallup23190
Tony Pollard35120
Brandin Cooks1270
KaVontae Turpin1151
Luke Schoonmaker1100
Hunter Luepke0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts17/2320720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift18432.40
Jalen Hurts10363.61
Kenny Gainwell3227.31
Rashaad Penny284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown79661
DeVonta Smith33511
Dallas Goedert34500
D'Andre Swift22310
Olamide Zaccheaus1280
Kenny Gainwell1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.96