Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play+0.061
- 48.0%Success rate46.3%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.68CPOE+3.86
- 49.6%Third-down rate47.5%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.67Points / drive2.30
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 29/44 | 374 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 11 | 16 | 191 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 10 | 91 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/23 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.96