2024 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

34·6

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-3.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.089
  • 45.2%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback-0.067
  • +0.056EPA / rush-0.128
  • 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +6.20CPOE-4.87
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.46Points / drive1.68
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:35715Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:5710Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 8:52417Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 7:05832Field goal7–3
PHIQ1 3:10665Turnover7–3
DALQ2 14:5535Punt7–3
PHIQ2 12:49527Punt7–3
DALQ2 9:211563Turnover7–3
PHIQ2 3:043-19Turnover7–3
DALQ2 2:0831Field goal7–6
PHIQ2 1:48784Touchdown14–6
DALQ2 0:2330Punt14–6
PHIQ2 0:0100End of half14–6
PHIQ3 15:0031Punt14–6
DALQ3 13:4833Punt14–6
PHIQ3 11:42832Touchdown21–6
DALQ3 8:5235Punt21–6
PHIQ3 7:13783Touchdown28–6
DALQ3 2:565-4Turnover28–6
PHIQ3 1:0330Field goal31–6
DALQ4 14:50513Turnover31–6
PHIQ4 12:4239Field goal34–6
DALQ4 10:32211Turnover34–6
PHIQ4 9:5336Punt34–6
DALQ4 8:07614Punt34–6
PHIQ4 5:03829End of half34–6

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts14/2020221
Kenny Pickett1/2500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley14664.70
Jalen Hurts7568.02
Will Shipley9343.80
Kenny Gainwell7304.30
Kenny Pickett111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown571090
Jahan Dotson11270
Dallas Goedert23251
DeVonta Smith23140
Saquon Barkley11120
Kenny Gainwell1190
Ainias Smith2260
Johnny Wilson1151
Grant Calcaterra0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush13/234500
Trey Lance4/62101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle12534.40
Ezekiel Elliott6223.70
Trey Lance3175.70
CeeDee Lamb133.00
Cooper Rush221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jake Ferguson45240
CeeDee Lamb610210
Jalen Tolbert35140
Jalen Brooks1440
Rico Dowdle3330
Luke Schoonmaker0100
Hunter Luepke0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.9%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.45