Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.089
- 45.2%Success rate41.4%
- +0.165EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.056EPA / rush-0.128
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +6.20CPOE-4.87
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.46Points / drive1.68
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/20 | 202 | 2 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Will Shipley | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ainias Smith | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 13/23 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 4/6 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 10 | 21 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.45