Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.109
- 43.3%Success rate47.2%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.007
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.26CPOE+1.89
- 37.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.11Points / drive2.53
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 27/39 | 289 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 10 | 110 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darius Cooper | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/36 | 354 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 20 | 87 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 9 | 146 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.58