2025 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

21·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.109
  • 43.3%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.007
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.26CPOE+1.89
  • 37.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.53
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL
2022 · W6DAL @ PHI17–26PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:00622Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 11:51750Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 8:4144Punt7–0
PHIQ1 7:051361Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 0:57534Turnover14–0
PHIQ2 14:42776Touchdown21–0
DALQ2 11:321164Turnover21–0
PHIQ2 5:0138Punt21–0
DALQ2 2:52787Touchdown21–7
PHIQ2 0:2111End of half21–7
PHIQ3 15:0048Punt21–7
DALQ3 13:333-1Punt21–7
PHIQ3 11:25618Punt21–7
DALQ3 9:16863Missed field goal21–7
PHIQ3 6:3437Punt21–7
DALQ3 4:18973Touchdown21–14
PHIQ3 2:02745Missed field goal21–14
DALQ4 13:09354Touchdown21–21
PHIQ4 11:40743Turnover21–21
DALQ4 7:28617Punt21–21
DALQ4 5:0947Turnover on downs21–21
PHIQ4 3:38522Punt21–21
DALQ4 1:35551Field goal21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts27/3928910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts7334.72
Saquon Barkley10222.20
Tank Bigsby188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown8101101
DeVonta Smith611890
Saquon Barkley78520
Dallas Goedert22200
Grant Calcaterra1180
Darius Cooper2270
Xavier Gipson1130
Jahan Dotson0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/3635421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams20874.30
Malik Davis3248.00
Dak Prescott591.81
KaVontae Turpin242.00
Jake Ferguson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens991461
CeeDee Lamb411750
Jake Ferguson56600
KaVontae Turpin12480
Javonte Williams23140
Hunter Luepke1170
Brevyn Spann-Ford1141
Luke Schoonmaker0100
Ryan Flournoy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.58