Closing spread
PHI -8.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutPerrion WinfreyDTBack· DNP
Eagles
- OutTanner McKeeQBThumb· DNP
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.034
- 47.2%Success rate43.3%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.047
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.89CPOE+3.26
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.53Points / drive2.11
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–27 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:49 | 10 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q1 5:55 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q2 14:56 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q2 6:46 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| PHI | Q2 2:34 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| DAL | Q2 0:51 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| DAL | Q3 8:30 | 10 | 64 | Turnover | 20–24 |
| PHI | Q3 4:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–24 |
| DAL | Q3 3:10 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 20–24 |
| PHI | Q4 14:46 | 11 | 32 | Punt | 20–24 |
| DAL | Q4 7:20 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 20–24 |
| PHI | Q4 4:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–24 |
| DAL | Q4 3:02 | 7 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 20–24 |
| PHI | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/34 | 188 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/23 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Will Shipley | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.91